“How about extending the deadline to three weeks?”
The person in front of , wearing a worried expression, was Gray.
He was my execution trader.
An execution trader, as the na suggests, is a trader who executes orders.
They don’t make decisions on their own but carry out orders given by the PM or CIO.
Their main task is to handle large orders carefully and efficiently so as not to affect the market.
I had once instructed Gray to quietly accumulate a 5% stake in Allergan.
The pharmaceutical company targeted by Ackman.
This was, in the end, the first step in preparing for war with Ackman…
“It’s nearly impossible to move within a week.”
That was the response I got.
Naturally, I clicked my tongue.
‘I miss you, Huxley…’
Huxley.
In my previous life, he was the execution trader who beca my right hand.
He had an exceptional instinct and quick wits that made his work impeccable.
But I couldn’t bring him in just yet.
At this point in ti, he was still a rookie at Morgan Stanley.
Well, he’d have to roll around there and get the hang of things before becoming useful like I saw before.
Until then, Gray, the execution trader recomnded by Goldman, was my right hand.
But despite being recomnded by Goldman, his skills were…
“So, are you saying it’s completely impossible?”
“That’s not it. However, you said to do it discreetly, but it seems other forces are also accumulating shares…”
So, he’s saying it can’t be done in secret like I asked?
‘Hmm, not a bad instinct.’
His judgnt was correct.
Ackman must also be quietly accumulating shares by now.
Gray had sensed that flow and was suggesting a cautious approach.
He continued, as if offering an excuse.
“If the goal is only to accumulate shares, then it’s doable. There’s always the extre option of sweeping up everything in dark pools. But in that case, soone will definitely notice.”
Soone like Ackman could realize our accumulation.
I paused in thought, then let out a small laugh.
‘I was planning to do it secretly, but…?’
Getting caught might actually lead to a more interesting result.
“Oh, if that’s the case, then it’s fine. Let’s go with the one-week plan.”
“Sorry?”
“It’s okay if we get caught. But—”
That’s when it happened.
Knock knock—
The door opened and my secretary peeked in.
“Soone from the Qatar Investnt Authority is here. They’re waiting in the conference room.”
“Yes, I’ll be right there.”
I quickly stood up and looked back at Gray.
“I’ll explain later. It’s okay to get caught, but only by that other force. That’s not too much to ask, right?”
“What do you an…?”
“Just execute it for now.”
‘Too busy.’
Since the Ebola crisis, there hadn’t been a mont to breathe.
Even now, institutional investors were flocking to et .
“You’re here?”
As I entered the conference room, an Arab man looking through a thick docunt raised his head.
He tried to stand and offer a handshake, but I waved him off.
“It’s alright. Please continue reading. It’ll be more efficient to talk once you’re finished.”
“Very well, let’s do that.”
He turned his gaze back to the docunt.
What he was reading was my investnt report related to Ebola.
A detailed docunt showing which stocks my fund had invested in and what results it had produced.
“This is extrely detailed. Much more than I expected…”
Surprise was evident on the man’s face.
It’s rare for a hedge fund to disclose such detailed materials.
Showing everything this transparently poses a risk of exposing strategies, and once those are known, investors may feel there’s no need to pay high fees to use the fund.
So, so level of secrecy is the norm…
But I was different.
‘Because I need to spread the report first.’
Did I ntion it?
Retail investors and Wall Street differ vastly in the scale of their "easy money."
Buying stocks alone for future gains is what retail investors do.
Spreading that information to grow the entire pie—that’s Wall Street.
To pull off a proper score the Wall Street way, you need to distribute reports in advance.
Craft a report that cleverly weaves numbers and logic and wraps it in mathematical reasoning.
What matters is making everyone believe in it blindly.
Flip, flip.
As he turned the pages, the man’s eyes gradually lit up with admiration.
“So that’s the approach you took…”
Most hedge funds took long positions in vaccine developers and short positions in vulnerable industries like airlines during this crisis.
Of course, I followed those basic strategies too—but I didn’t stop there.
I also invested in companies dealing with dical packaging, thermal imaging caras, protective gear, and lab equipnt.
“Current returns are around 5%, but there’ll be a sharper rise within two months. The governnt is planning a major facility upgrade due to this crisis.”
The Ebola fear that swept across the country.
It started with nurses getting infected due to poor dical equipnt.
In such an unsettling atmosphere, the governnt couldn’t just sit idle.
Indeed, ergency funding is scheduled to be injected this December.
They also plan to designate pandemic response hospitals nationwide and upgrade the related infrastructure and equipnt…
The surge in hazmat suit companies’ stock prices wasn’t unrelated.
Beyond simple demand, hazmat suits have now beco essential in all dical facilities.
In a way, I had predicted governnt policy and invested accordingly.
After that explanation, the man nodded and spoke.
“I see. So does that an 20% of the fund will now be invested in preparation for the next pandemic?”
He was asking about the direction of the 20% allocated for black swan investnts.
I smiled and answered.
“Black swans represent systemic risks. A pandemic is just one of them. Erging diseases like Ebola, as well as rare diseases, are part of our risk managent focus. It will take ti, but this kind of preemptive action will allow us to achieve both risk managent and profitability.”
I casually threw in a ntion of rare diseases.
Why would I go so far to prepare a detailed report and build blind trust?
It’s all so that, even if I invest in sothing unprofitable like Castleman’s, no one would complain.
‘The groundwork is laid…’
Now I just need to make the final move.
But unlike other institutional investors, the person I was eting now—the representative from the Qatar Investnt Authority—had another purpose.
‘There’s soone I want to be introduced to through this man.’
The bait had already been set.
“By the way, may I ask why you didn’t invest in the vaccine developnt race?”
As expected, he took the bait.
With Ebola fear spreading globally, the dical world was fiercely competing to develop a vaccine.
The related stocks fluctuated depending on who would be the first to develop a cure.
Currently, there were six leading candidates.
But…
“It clearly says GSK is the most likely candidate, yet it's not on your investnt list. May I ask why?”
There was a reason this man was asking such a question.
The Qatar Investnt Authority was a major shareholder of the pharmaceutical company GSK.
However, GSK’s current situation wasn’t exactly promising.
Despite leading the Ebola vaccine developnt race, its stock price was actually on the decline.
But this wasn’t surprising.
Due to the nature of large pharmaceutical companies with diverse product lines, the performance of products already on the market affects the stock price more than a single vaccine still in developnt.
From Qatar’s perspective, they likely wanted to adjust their stake depending on GSK’s success.
But an orca with an 80% success rate in predicting black swans had avoided investing here?
They would naturally want to know the reason.
“It’s because I haven’t identified the key variable yet. Without it, the volatility is too great.”
“And that variable is…?”
“It’s people. In this race, leadership will play a decisive role.”
“By people… do you an Yousef Janssen?”
Yousef Janssen.
He was the head of GSK’s vaccine division, known for implenting bold internal policies.
He was also achieving remarkable results during the Ebola crisis.
As soon as Ebola broke out, he managed to get a vaccine candidate through Phase 1 clinical trials.
In just one year.
It was an unprecedented pace.
That was only possible because institutions like the NIH, WHO, and FDA acknowledged the urgency and made exceptions.
Among all the pharmaceutical companies, only Janssen had achieved such remarkable results.
That demonstrated his outstanding capability.
“So you’re saying we need to et this man to assess the likelihood of success?”
Yes, Janssen.
He was the one person I absolutely had to et.
But hearing that, I shook my head slightly.
“It’s just a figure of speech. In reality, securing a eting won’t be easy. He’s not even in the U.S. right now, and there’s no reason for him to et soone like at this ti.”
A top vaccine developer eting a hedge fund manager during the worst Ebola crisis in history?
The chances of him accepting the eting were slim.
But… what if the request ca from a major shareholder?
“What if I arranged the eting for you?”
I smiled to myself.
Janssen would beco soone I absolutely needed a few years from now.
He would eventually beco the Chief Scientific Officer of Operation Warp Speed, the public-private COVID-19 vaccine developnt initiative.
A pandemic report everyone blindly believes in, and Janssen.
With just these two cards, I could expand the ga however I wanted.
***
The eting with Janssen was arranged sooner than expected.
Not even a week later, I was invited to a table at a high-end restaurant downtown, with a representative from the Qatar Investnt Authority in attendance.
When I arrived, both n were already there.
The conversation abruptly stopped as I entered, which ant they had been talking about .
Their conversation was obvious.
They must have discussed my hit rate and the black swan theory.
My guess was spot-on.
As soon as we exchanged greetings, Janssen brought it up.
“I’ve heard. You predicted this Ebola crisis quite accurately. And I also heard you boast an 80% success rate in FDA approvals in the healthcare sector.”
Though it sounded like praise, his expression was full of skepticism.
I smiled and calmly replied.
“Seems like you’re having a hard ti believing it.”
“To be honest, yes. It’s hard to believe that soone in finance, with no direct involvent in developnt, could have foreseen this.”
“Even if it’s hard to believe, the actual performance…”
The Qatar representative tried to step in and defend , but I cut him off.
“It’s fine. You don’t have to believe . I didn’t co here to convince anyone.”
Janssen was a scientist.
Spouting superficial knowledge in front of him would be foolish.
That kind of tactic wouldn’t work.
As the conversation hit a pause, the Qatar Investnt Authority representative carefully got to the point.
“I just thought that since both of you have a shared interest in pandemics, this could be a aningful discussion.”
He wanted and Janssen to talk, hoping to get a glimpse of GSK’s future through him.
But Janssen looked quite uncomfortable.
“I’m not sure what kind of discussion you’re expecting. Most of the information I handle is classified, and I can’t share anything about vaccine developnt.”
“I see. I was hoping to ask about the estimated timing of clinical trials, but it seems difficult.”
“That’s correct.”
Janssen was firm.
He had no information to share.
But I wasn’t disappointed.
Because I didn’t co here to listen in the first place.
“That’s alright. You don’t have to tell anything. Just listening to what I have to say is enough.”
I looked Janssen straight in the eye and began speaking.
“You might not believe this, but according to my algorithm, if GSK hasn’t already begun large-scale Phase 3 trials, the likelihood of vaccine success is slim.”
“Phase 3? We’ve just finished Phase 1 this month. It seems you’re unaware of that.”
Janssen chuckled.
Normally, clinical trials go from Phase 1 to 2, then to 3.
But I was saying Phase 3 should already be underway.
“Given the urgency of the situation, there’s a high likelihood that Phase 2 and Phase 3 have been rged into a large-scale trial. That’s why I said it.”
“…”
Janssen fell silent.
Because the FDA had, in fact, granted an exceptional approval for a combined Phase 2 and 3 trial.
It was information no one should have known, yet my “algorithm” had guessed it.
Of course, that alone wouldn’t be enough for him to trust .
But I caught a glimpse of curiosity in his eyes.
“Is there a reason you’re so sure it will fail?”
“Because this ti, Ebola has reached the U.S. The Western response is going to be different from here on out.”
Ebola was no longer just Africa’s problem.
The West was starting to act.
“If my prediction is correct, the U.S. governnt will swiftly inject between 20 to 25 billion dollars in funding.”
The actual number is 25 billion.
“Additionally, five to six tis the expected manpower will be dispatched.”
The U.S. military had already sent 500 personnel to Africa, with plans to increase that to 3,000 by the end of the year.
“And treatnt centers, isolation facilities, and patient tracking systems will be rapidly upgraded.”
With large-scale support from the U.S. governnt, the number of patients would plumt by early 2015.
So rapidly, in fact, that conducting large-scale clinical trials would beco difficult.
In other words, there would be too few patients to conduct the trials.
“No way.”
Janssen let out a dry laugh at my assertion.
Having witnessed the West’s lukewarm response so far, he didn’t expect such swift action.
But…
“Within a few months, the number of Ebola patients in Africa will decline.”
I was certain.
It wasn’t that the West couldn’t help until now.
They simply had no reason to step in aggressively.
But now that they had felt the real fear of Ebola, they would do everything to stop it.
Janssen still looked skeptical, but I didn’t mind.
I handed him my business card.
“As I said, it’s fine if you don’t believe . But if you’re curious later, feel free to reach out.”
If my predictions proved right in a few months, so would faith in my algorithm.
That’s when the true value of my prophecy would be revealed.
‘That should be enough, right?’
My groundwork using Ebola to prepare for COVID-19 was complete.
Now it was ti to move on to the real agenda.
Just then—
A ssage ca in from the trader.
It was ti to focus on the next battlefield.
Ti to go after Ackman.
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