A Wall Street Genius’s Final Investment Playbook Chapter 202

Contrary to expectations, Ha Si-heon revealed information about Black Swan without hesitation.

"Soon, the Chinese stock market will crash."

"What?"

At his words, Gerrard's eyes widened.

"The Chinese market is currently excessively overvalued. In less than a year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 150%. The problem is that it's too dependent on margin trading. The market is entirely leveraged, with individual investors borrowing to invest. In my analysis, this is clearly a bubble, and that bubble will soon burst."

It was hard to believe at first…

But if it was Ha Si-heon saying it, it couldn't be ignored.

Gerrard swallowed hard and listened closely.

"And once the bubble bursts, it won’t stop at just a market crash. Disposable inco will decrease, freezing the consur market. And if currency fluctuations overlap on top of that…"

"……."

Gerrard’s face stiffened.

‘A collapse of the Chinese stock market…!?’

China accounted for almost half of Marquis’s global sales.

If Ha Si-heon's prediction was accurate, this wouldn’t just be a crisis—it would be a catastrophe that shakes the entire company.

"When… exactly do you think this will happen?"

First, he had to know the timing.

The precise mont the bubble would burst.

He needed that information to prepare accordingly.

However, Ha Si-heon shook his head.

“I can't pinpoint the exact ti. It can only be guessed by continuously monitoring the situation.”

"Then, can you inform if you see signs of it?"

“That’s not possible.”

"……?"

Ha Si-heon's reply was uncharacteristically firm.

Just monts ago, he had seed cooperative enough to help with anything—so why this now?

"Do you rember the Genesis incident?"

How could he forget.

Genesis was the pharmaceutical company that skyrocketed over 600% in just two days.

It was the very company that delivered Gerrard a humiliating loss in a bet against Ha Si-heon.

That too, was a Black Swan.

“No matter how much you explain the reasoning, Black Swans are fundantally abnormal variables, which makes them hard to believe. Wasn’t that the case back then too?"

"……"

He couldn’t deny it.

Even during the Genesis incident, Ha Si-heon had provided detailed reports, but Gerrard hadn’t believed them.

“This is the problem with Black Swans. They defy common sense and are hard to trust. If the information is t with skepticism or selectively accepted, it can result in even greater losses. In fact, during the Genesis case, several senior mbers of Goldman suffered massive losses from acting on incomplete information.”

Ha Si-heon took a breath before continuing with a resolute tone.

“That’s why Black Swan information must only be given to soone who ets certain conditions. This is also for your sake, Gerrard. And the first condition is ‘unconditional trust.' But…”

Ha Si-heon stared directly at Gerrard.

‘You don’t trust .’

At that unspoken accusation, Gerrard quickly responded.

"The situation is different now. You've proven yourself. The Genesis and Ebola incidents already showed how accurate your Black Swan predictions are."

“No, that’s not the kind of trust I an. I'm not talking about ‘half-trust’ or ‘conditional belief,’ but ‘unconditional trust.’”

‘Unconditional trust.’

It was an extrely heavy phrase.

But if he wanted information on a coming catastrophe, it was a condition he had no choice but to accept.

Gerrard hesitated for a mont, then opened his mouth.

"Alright. I’ll trust you completely… so, will you tell ?"

He had barely managed to make the promise.

But Ha Si-heon exhaled softly and shook his head.

“I appreciate your trust, but it’s still not enough.”

“Why not?”

“I ntioned this was the ‘first condition.’ There’s a second condition to sharing Black Swan information. A more fundantal and important one… and that’s ‘authority.’”

“Authority?”

Gerrard frowned.

Ha Si-heon calmly continued explaining.

“Yes. Even if you trust completely, the Marquis company doesn’t move based on your decisions, does it? I an no offense, but it doesn’t seem like you hold that level of authority yet."

"……"

He had no rebuttal.

After all, everything he had shown Ha Si-heon up to this point proved just that.

During Thanksgiving, his mother had tested Gerrard right in front of Ha Si-heon.

He needed his father Raymond’s help in a bet.

Recently, regarding the pet food acquisition, he had sought Ha Si-heon’s advice while ntioning ‘opposition from the elders.’

These were not the actions of soone with final decision-making power.

“Sensitive information like this must be communicated directly to the final decision-makers. Incomplete information is better left unshared. It’s better if I speak and persuade them myself.”

Black Swan information was to be delivered directly to the family elders who held true power.

But to Gerrard, that was aningless.

If that happened, it would only prove Ha Si-heon’s information network—but wouldn’t help Gerrard show his qualification as heir at all.

Moreover, regardless of whether it benefited him or not, there was another issue.

His mother and uncles would never trust and follow Ha Si-heon's words.

Ha Si-heon was younger than Gerrard, an outsider, and an Asian man with an unknown background.

“That’s impossible. You said it yourself—the first condition for receiving this information is ‘unconditional trust,' but they would never trust you. If anything, relaying it through has a higher chance of success…"

“I refuse. As I said, unless the person shows absolute trust and holds final authority, this information could beco poison.”

"But… there’s no other way.”

“Then that’s that. It’s unfortunate.”

Ha Si-heon answered with a casual shrug, as if it had nothing to do with him.

And to him, it really didn’t.

Even if Marquis collapsed, it wouldn’t affect Ha Si-heon at all.

“Well, it’ll be fine. When the catastrophe hits, the entire industry will shake. It won’t just be Marquis falling behind.”

"……"

But Gerrard needed exactly the opposite outco.

When everyone else was shaken, he had to be the one to survive and prove his difference, to be recognized as the heir capable of leading Marquis.

Gerrard gave a bitter smile and downed his drink.

“To gain authority, I need your information. But to get your information, I need authority… Isn't this a complete deadlock?”

“That’s not necessarily true. There’s always a way—if you look for it.”

When Gerrard turned to him, Ha Si-heon had that familiar smile at the corners of his lips.

The dangerous smile he always showed before delivering a shocking proposal.

There was no way it would be sothing ordinary.

Not if Ha Si-heon was smiling like that.

Still…

He had no choice but to ask.

“What is it…?”

“Ask the decision-makers to grant you full authority over all Marquis operations for one year.”

Gerrard stared at him in speechless shock for a while.

###

He must’ve thought it was a joke.

“If you can just get that authority, I’ll share every piece of information I know without holding anything back.”

Only then did Gerrard’s eyes widen, realizing I was serious.

But in the very next mont, he shook his head vigorously.

“That’s ridiculous! They’d never give that kind of authority!”

I clicked my tongue inwardly without aning to.

‘No backbone.’

Gerrard was, in a way, the crown prince.

Though he’d been designated as the next heir, he hadn’t ascended the throne yet.

No matter how brilliant the future might seem, in that position it’s hard to exercise real power.

But this situation wasn’t ideal for either.

‘At this rate, I’ll have to wait for approval from the upper echelons of the Marquis family every ti I want to move.’

I wasn’t helping Gerrard out of charity.

My goal was the data and political influence held by Marquis.

But Gerrard wasn’t in a position where he could wield those things freely.

Therefore, what I needed to do was clear.

‘First, I need to put Gerrard in the CEO seat.’

I had to make the crown prince into a king—soone who could wield full authority.

In that sense, my role was essentially that of a kingmaker.

However, Gerrard himself seed to lack the bearing of a crown prince.

“Even if it's only for a year, asking for full authority… What you’re saying just shows you don’t know my family. They never relinquish absolute power. They don’t even fully recognize yet.”

“Recognition, huh…”

A bitter laugh escaped .

He seed to believe that only by earning the recognition and trust of those around him could he ascend to the throne.

But…

‘If they won’t give it, just take it.’

Why wait to be chosen by those in power?

Seizing the throne by your own strength is faster and more certain.

‘Has he simply never thought of it? Or is he avoiding it deliberately, even while knowing it?’

Perhaps he instinctively avoided such extre thods, fearing it would create discord within the family.

If so, then my role beca even clearer.

I had to lead Gerrard down that path.

That’s the true role of a kingmaker.

“Just try it first. How can you know the outco without even making an attempt?”

“But realistically…”

Gerrard trailed off.

Because right now, I was saying sothing that went against common sense.

But if you really think about it, even Gerrard’s goal itself is already beyond common sense.

“Common sense… Right. Common sense says there’s no way soone Gerrard’s age would be given control of a massive corporation. He’ll be kept on a leash by countless advisors, led safely as if on training wheels… And only when he’s in his late 40s or 50s, once he’s deed fully prepared, will they finally hand over the seat. That’s the typical trajectory.”

"……"

“The sa goes for hedge funds. Two years in investnt banking, two years as a hedge fund analyst, and then several more years to beco a portfolio manager—that’s the standard. But if I had followed that conventional path, wouldn’t I have only been able to start a fund under my own na in my 40s? If you want an extraordinary outco, you need to take extraordinary asures.”

"……."

Gerrard’s gaze wavered.

After all, I was standing right in front of him as living proof—soone who had carved out his own path beyond the standard track.

But then—

“You’re saying… you want to do what you did?”

Distrust seeped into Gerrard’s voice.

That’s when I realized he might have misunderstood sothing.

I wasn’t asking him to rally rich investors during a recession and go all-in.

Nor to accuse a great white shark of racism on national TV.

Nor to mobilize retail investors to launch a revolution during the Herbalife short-selling war.

That’s not what I ant.

I lowered my voice and reassured him.

“Gerrard’s path is different from mine. Because your goals are different. I’m not telling you to stir up a nationwide controversy. Just start by asking for full managerial authority over Marquis for one year.”

“I’ve been saying—there’s no way they’ll give that.”

“Of course they won’t—if you simply ask.”

I smiled calmly and continued.

“That’s why you need to present conditions that make it impossible for them to refuse. For example, declare that if you incur any losses during your year of control, you’ll take full responsibility. Cover the losses with your personal assets.”

"……"

“Or, offer to forfeit your shares. Even renounce your inheritance rights, if necessary. You could even promise to completely step away from managent if you fail. Any such show of resolve will make your request more convincing.”

“…Aren’t you being a bit harsh, just because it’s not your life on the line?”

Gerrard frowned in protest, but I shrugged in response.

“I’ve taken on risks of that scale too. Don’t you rember?”

Back when I bet with Gerrard, I had boldly declared I’d take responsibility for half the losses if things went south.

At the ti, I was nothing more than a regular analyst with a basic Goldman salary.

“If I hadn’t succeeded, I’d be buried under a mountain of debt for life.”

I looked Gerrard straight in the eyes and said:

“There’s no such thing as a reward without risk. The bigger the reward, the greater the risk. That’s the very essence of high-risk, high-return.”

“……”

“Starting a small fund alone cos with considerable risk. But Gerrard, what you want isn’t a small fund. You’re after the managent rights of a global corporation. Do you really think you can get that without taking any risks at all?”

At my words, Gerrard fell silent.

He seed quite shaken—but soon bit his lip and spoke his true feelings.

“But… the risk is too big. What if… what if I follow your advice and fail?”

“Then you’ll lose everything and be stripped of your heir status.”

“…Are you telling to act with that kind of resolve?”

Gerrard’s concern was valid.

Charging ahead recklessly in the face of massive risk would be foolish.

But—

That’s why he needed a kingmaker.

Soone to offer wisdom in monts of crisis.

“Risk avoidance isn’t the goal. What matters is managing that risk at a controllable level.”

“And… is there actually a way to manage this risk?”

I looked Gerrard in the eye and replied:

“Yes. There is.”