This idea dinner was, in fact, a “high-stakes” poker ga that would decide whether I could join the Triangle Club.
And I was playing with all my cards laid bare.
But…
There was a small problem here.
The hand I was holding wasn’t particularly strong.
‘AI is still too early for this era.’
That’s right.
I was planning to present the “Stark vs. Gooble AI War” as my investnt idea.
But in order for it to succeed, all ten mbers needed to follow my lead and invest.
‘It won’t be easy like this.’
AI’s developnt was still in such an early stage.
There was potential for it to explode soday, but at this mont, the chances looked too slim.
If we put it in poker terms, it was like having three of a kind.
If I could draw one more matching card, I might jump to four of a kind, but people don’t usually bet big on odds like this.
Most prefer to aim for hands that are easier to complete, like a full house, a straight, or a flush.
‘In the end, my idea alone isn’t enough.’
Even so, I had to make them bet on my three of a kind.
There were only two thods I could use in this situation.
First, ‘persuasion.’
However…
‘Convincing this many people at once is impossible.’
No matter how skilled I was, going up against this many people simultaneously was overwhelming.
If I rushed in recklessly, they might unite to block , which was risky.
Besides, I still didn’t have enough information to persuade them.
So for now, it was wise to seek an alternative.
The second thod.
Negotiation.
‘If you give your vote, I’ll give you sothing in return’ — that was the essence of negotiation.
On the surface, it might look like “buying votes,” but that’s just a common misconception about negotiation tactics.
‘I don’t really like this thod…’
Unlike persuasion, in negotiation I have to give sothing up, so it ends up being far more costly.
So I didn’t prefer it.
‘Well, it’s not that I can’t do it, I just don’t want to.’
But in a situation like this, with so many opponents and so little information, it was better to at least give it a try.
The first place I visited was the “Stone Sanctuary.”
Just like its na, it was a ditation room carved out of a giant natural rock.
But inside, the face of the man sitting there looked familiar.
‘So he’s a mber too.’
Daniel Roel.
A symbolic figure representing activist hedge funds.
The reason Roel beca famous was none other than his “shareholder letters.”
His letters, aid at boards and executives, were filled with biting sarcasm and cynicism. For example:
His letters, so savage they crossed lines, were considered almost a literary genre of their own.
I actually liked the literary flair of them, secretly.
Anyway.
Sensing my presence, Roel slowly opened his eyes and smiled.
“It’s a welco face.”
A pretty favorable reaction.
‘So he was thinking about negotiation too.’
Well, on Wall Street, it was standard practice to try negotiation before anything important.
“Thank you for welcoming . I was worried I might be interrupting your ditation.”
“Not at all. In fact, I’ve always wanted to talk with you. Your Valeant campaign was truly impressive. Using short selling to counter a short attack…"
He ntioned my past achievent with a bright smile.
It was a bit unexpected.
After all, the opponent I defeated at Valeant was none other than Ackman, another Triangle Club mber.
‘Maybe they didn’t get along?’
While I was thinking that, Roel chuckled and continued.
“We look forward to working with you.”
It was an explicit invitation to join as a club mber.
But…
“We?”
“There are three others who share my views.”
aning he wasn’t alone; they moved as a group of four.
Depending on his choice, four votes would move at once.
“If you show us your hand, we’d gladly consider cooperating.”
He was asking to reveal my investnt idea first.
But I couldn’t do that.
My hand was only three of a kind.
If I revealed it, I’d be at a disadvantage.
So I answered with a gentle smile.
“I’d prefer if we could work together without showing my hand.”
“Haha, I’m sorry. It’s difficult to trust soone we’ve just t to that degree.”
“Of course, I’m not asking you to simply trust .”
It was ti to negotiate.
I already knew what I would propose to Roel.
“If you put that much trust in , I’ll lend you my weapon.”
“A weapon…?”
“Retail investors.”
Yes, this was the biggest service I could offer.
Access to my “army of retail investors.”
To win at a shareholder eting, activist hedge funds need to secure as many votes as possible.
Retail investors can hold up to 35% of an S&P 500 company’s shares, but they’re too scattered to exert any real power.
But ?
I’m the only person in Arica who can unite them as one force.
aning, if I help, I could rally up to an additional 35% of votes.
“If you trust , I promise I’ll return the favor when it really counts.”
Roel seed quite interested in my offer to mobilize the retail army. And he didn’t even try to hide it.
“That’s pretty tempting.”
“Of course, I need a fair price for that. I want your four votes.”
At that, Roel’s expression hardened slightly.
"Surely, you’re not suggesting that you’ll offer this ‘support’ to all four of us."
"Of course not. This support is ant for you alone."
At these words, Roel’s face hardened.
"So, you’re telling to enjoy the benefits alone while my colleagues are left out. Do you really think they’d accept that?"
"I trust that you’re skilled enough to persuade them yourself."
There were plenty of ways he could appease his colleagues.
For example, he could ghostwrite shareholder letters for them.
"If this approach feels uncomfortable, I could provide support equally to all four of you. But wouldn’t that dilute the exclusivity?"
In fact, deploying the retail investor army too often would be toxic.
It might make a big splash once or twice, but if I kept summoning them every month, it would just cause fatigue and lose its impact.
Roel surely didn’t want that either.
In the end, he reached a quick conclusion.
"Exclusivity is important."
"Then, shall we consider it agreed?"
"Of course. I’ll handle persuading the others."
And just like that, with the “retail investor mobilization pass,” I secured four votes.
A great start.
Now, in my pocket, I had six votes total — Ackman’s, the Great White Shark’s, and the four from the activist camp.
I needed ten votes to pass, aning I still had to secure four more.
Fortunately, there were still six people lingering in the resort’s common areas.
I thought that was a pretty optimistic number…
But what I imdiately ran into was hardship.
The next person I encountered was Lyle Kass.
A macro fund manager known for predicting the subpri crisis, he opened his mouth almost accusingly as soon as he saw .
"Was it really necessary to corner China that much? The yuan was destined to collapse anyway, you could’ve just waited."
He seed displeased that I didn’t wait for the yuan to fall naturally and instead used the Delphi Report, retail investors, hyenas, and even elephants to intervene artificially.
‘Does he think I trespassed into his territory?’
Macro funds mainly deal with national-level issues.
So when I was active across Malaysia, Greece, and China recently, he must have felt I was running wild in their domain.
Still, I had to try negotiating first, so I spoke up.
"I rarely intervene in macro. If I do, it’s only for black swan events. What if, when the ti cos, our directions align?"
This was my way of proposing: “When there’s an international event, I’ll share my black swan info, so please vote for .”
But his response was unexpected.
"What concerns most isn’t the ‘direction’ but the ‘speed.’"
"Speed?"
"We don’t welco artificial interventions like what happened with China. If you let the flow proceed naturally and simply help ‘adjust’ the speed, then we might consider cooperating."
"Adjust, huh…"
I felt sothing was off.
"You say to let it flow naturally, but then ask to adjust the speed… Isn’t that essentially saying not to go against the flow?"
"Exactly."
"So, even if we’re heading in the sa direction, you’re saying I have to match your speed no matter what? That doesn’t sound like ‘adjusting’; it sounds like a ‘leash.’"
Lyle Kass basically wanted to put a leash on to prevent from acting freely.
I had no reason to accept such a demand.
"That’s not my style."
I firmly refused.
In the end, the negotiation broke down.
‘Well, I guess this side was inevitable.’
Still, just confirming that the macro camp viewed with hostility was a kind of gain.
In the bigger picture, it wasn’t bad.
They still had their uses.
‘I still have five more people to et.’
But even after that, the obstacles continued.
Next, I t with the quants, and I proposed to them:
"I’ll share the results of my black swan prediction algorithm with you first."
I thought quants would find this offer very appealing.
After all, black swans were almost a kind of ‘romance’ to them.
But their reaction was unexpected.
"I’ve spent over ten years structuring large event risks, and I concluded that it’s impossible to capture black swans with a system. Yet, you, who aren’t even a professional, claim to have done it? Hard to believe."
They openly declared they had no trust in my algorithm at all.
"Even though I’ve already had successful predictions?"
"What matters to us is whether it’s reproducible, codable, and systemically explainable. Without that foundation, no matter how accurate the prediction, we can’t consider it a ‘signal.’"
"Even though I’ve gotten it right four tis in a row?"
"Even if you got it right twenty tis in a row, it wouldn’t change."
With that, they made a counterproposal.
"If, however, you can provide a verifiable frawork and structural connections, then we’d reconsider."
In short, what they really wanted wasn’t the ‘result’ of the black swan, but the ‘algorithm’ that derived it.
My answer was already decided.
"That’s impossible."
Because that so-called algorithm didn’t even exist in the first place.
It was just a clever cover for my ‘future knowledge.’
Besides, even if there really were such an algorithm, the answer would be the sa.
"It’s a trade secret."
Just like a patented formula, it couldn’t be casually revealed.
"If we’re talking cooperation, I could provide the secret in a specific form, but what you want is the entire recipe. That’s impossible."
"That’s unfortunate. But the offer remains open. Feel free to co back if you change your mind."
"You’re saying you don’t need the final product itself?"
"Again, we don’t place value on results without understanding the underlying principles."
"You’re not greedy at all."
"On the contrary, we’re very greedy. We care about the fishing thod, not the fish itself."
In the end, the negotiation collapsed.
However…
The sa condition was presented by the quants I t later in the library, sauna, and massage room.
"Contact us if you decide to share the algorithm. Until then, we can’t move forward."
In other words, they wouldn’t cast their votes unless I handed over the ‘recipe’ for the secret sauce.
Even after rejecting , they all still said “co back anyti,” showing the sa attitude.
In the end, I wasted two hours and didn’t secure a single vote.
‘I still need four more votes…’
The entire macro camp was hostile, and the quant camp was uniformly on hold.
For a mont, a thought crossed my mind.
‘Maybe… I really suck at negotiating?’
Perhaps I had focused too much on ‘persuasion’ all this ti, leaving with little real experience in negotiation.
But…
There was sothing that didn’t quite add up to simply chalk it up to lack of skill.
‘They don’t move together as a block, so why do they all demand the sa thing even when t separately?’
Unlike Roel and his group, the quants didn’t act as a single unit.
Yet, they all asked for my ‘algorithm formula.’
By demanding sothing I could never provide, they claid to be willing to negotiate.
‘Normally, that would an they have no intention of negotiating…’
But this ti, I couldn’t be so sure.
They all said, “The offer remains open,” and were careful not to push into a hostile stance.
‘So, they chose neutrality in the end.’
The quants didn’t seem to have any intention of voting for , but they also didn’t want to interfere with .
They were just firmly choosing neutrality.
They even clearly declared to , “We have no intention of attacking you.”
‘Well, neutrality is the safest option.’
By not getting involved with at all, they’d avoid any possible future losses.
‘Neutrality itself isn’t weird…’
But it was still excessive for all five quants to choose neutrality at the sa ti.
‘What is this…’
While I was deep in thought, suddenly, a flash of insight struck .
Like puzzle pieces snapping perfectly into place, the full picture ca into view.
‘This is it.’
A smile spread across my face.
I had co up with a way to secure a large number of votes all at once.
As I thought, the answer lay in ‘persuasion.’
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