The conversation is flowing smoothly, just as I had steered it.
"Unicorn?"
"This guy's teasers hit an 80% accuracy rate every ti! That’s why he earned the nickna. Not just once, but twice!"
Dobby emphasized the key points in an excited tone.
80% accuracy rate.
To anyone, that figure sounds absurd and seems easy to debunk.
At this point, Gerard should step in…
"80%? That’s hard to believe."
As expected, he took the bait.
I managed to suppress the smile creeping onto my lips.
"To be honest, it sounds like a con job."
And so, the con artist test officially began.
Gerard’s gaze locked onto , clearly expecting to defend myself.
But I had no intention of doing so.
Dobby was still the one answering Gerard's doubts.
"Exactly! The industry average is 10-30%, but 80%? That screams scam! When this guy first made such claims, everyone ignored him! But then! Soone decided to test him! A legendary MD at Goldman nad Pierce—known as the ‘Lich King of Deals’ because he never loses a negotiation."
Dobby passionately unraveled the story.
Even to , the subject of the tale, it sounded fascinating.
An arrogant rookie boasting an outrageous accuracy rate.
Word reaches a legendary MD, sparking a wager.
That alone would be intriguing enough, but the rivalry escalated when another legendary MD entered the fray.
Company politics ca into play, and what began as a bet turned into a battle of titans.
Caught in the crossfire, every small fry at Goldman had to pick a side.
Most bet on the rookie losing.
It was logical—an 80% accuracy rate? Who would believe that?
Then, the twist happened.
"The companies he claid were preparing for IPOs? They actually were! Three of them, in fact! It was confidential, but he predicted it."
"A coincidence."
"That’s what we thought too! But three out of ten? A 30% rate? That’s too high to dismiss as luck! Plus, these were companies no one thought were ready for IPOs. He chose only the most improbable cases!"
"Couldn’t he have known in advance?"
The heart of the con artist test lies in uncovering the trick.
In this sense, it’s like magic—once you figure out the chanics behind the illusion, the spell is broken.
When the trick is exposed, all that’s left is the naked truth of a con artist.
Gerard’s first accusation was simple yet effective:
"Insider information."
In other words, he implied the rookie had prior access to the answers and pretended he had deduced them himself.
Hearing this, Dobby clapped his hands in agreent.
"Exactly! That’s what we suspected too! But then he predicted rgers and acquisitions!"
"That’s sothing an informant could also provide."
"Right! So we were convinced as well. But then, sothing insane happened! A company he recomnded had their new drug approved by the FDA! And get this—it was a drug the company itself had given up on! They were preparing to sell the business, yet he called it!"
With that, Gerard’s first theory, "insider information," was debunked.
While Dobby continued his animated explanation, Gerard fell silent for a mont before launching his second line of attack.
"Isn’t this overly exaggerated?"
Gerard’s second accusation:
Using accomplices to plant false information.
Essentially, he suggested that the rookie was spreading fake leads through collaborators like Dobby.
"Exaggerated?!"
Dobby, suddenly labeled a liar, looked montarily indignant but quickly regained his composure.
He turned to the other witnesses seated at the table.
"You all saw it, didn’t you? Ask them. Everyone at Goldman had a copy of the teaser and was cross-checking it as the results ca in—like a ga of bingo!"
As soon as the question was raised, everyone seated at the table nodded in agreent.
It was a mont where Gerard was once again at a loss for words. Just as his face began to tense subtly—
“What’s the principle behind it?”
This ti, the question ca from Rachel’s mother, Judy. Smiling warmly at Gerard, she continued,
“There are things in the world that are hard to believe, but instead of doubting everything outright, shouldn’t we confirm objective evidence first?”
A peculiar tension filled the air.
On the surface, it seed like she was imparting wisdom to her son. But Gerard’s overly stiff reaction hinted at sothing more.
“How did you make such predictions?” Judy asked, this ti directing her question at .
Though her face was innocent, her deanor was anything but. She was sharp, sifting through Dobby’s story for only the verifiable facts.
It was ti for to step onto the stage.
“I simply identified certain patterns. The biggest challenge in the biopharmaceutical industry is patent expiration. By analyzing tilines and predicting movents to create new revenue streams…”
I offered a plausible explanation of my algorithm, to which Judy responded with a smile,
“Amazing. Such an algorithm exists? Could it be applied to other industries?”
…That caught off guard.
The idea of utilizing my algorithm outside its current scope hadn’t even crossed my mind.
“For instance, in the food industry?”
The ntion of the food industry seed to lend weight to the theory that Rachel’s maternal family was connected to Marquis, a confectionery company.
For a fleeting mont, I considered offering to create a customized algorithm for them.
But I quickly dismissed the thought.
For wealthy individuals, trustworthiness is paramount. Making empty promises would be reckless.
“This algorithm is designed specifically for the biopharmaceutical sector. It’s tailored to the unique characteristics of the industry and insights I gained from my dical background.”
“What I an is, with enough ti and effort, couldn’t patterns be identified in other fields as well?”
Judy’s innocent smile remained, but her gaze was razor-sharp.
“You’re not the only investor with a dical background, yet you’re the one who discovered this formula. That ans the true differentiation lies in your ability to predict market participants’ psychology and actions, doesn’t it?”
She wasn’t wrong.
Her sharpness, contrasting with her gentle exterior, surprised . Then she turned her attention to soone else.
“What do you think?”
The baton was suddenly passed to Gerard.
It beca clear—Judy was testing him.
In the presence of soone claiming such implausible accuracy, she wanted to see what judgnt her son would make.
Gerard responded quite maturely,
“It’s too soon to conclude that the algorithm is valid. A few cases aren’t enough to provide definitive proof. It’s better to wait until it has been thoroughly verified.”
“So, you’re going to wait?”
“I’m not simply waiting. While the algorithm is important, it’s equally crucial to observe the behavior of the person operating it. If soone touts an excessively high success rate to attract investors, it’s highly likely to be a Ponzi sche.”
Gerard’s gaze shifted to .
“Of course, Rachel’s colleague wouldn’t do such a thing. But if he were a con artist, he’d be aggressively recruiting investors.”
“Ah!”
Soone on the opposite end of the table suddenly exclaid. It was Jim from the tech departnt.
“Sean is already gathering investors within Goldman! Promising to manage their funds for them!”
As Jim ntioned my unofficial fund, a triumphant expression appeared on Gerard’s face.
He believed he had finally uncovered my trick.
His third accusation was clear: Ponzi sche.
The concept was straightforward:
Early investors receive high returns, enticing more investors to join.
New investors’ funds are then used to pay the earlier ones, creating a vicious cycle.
Eventually, it all collapses.
I calmly presented my rebuttal.
“I only intend to take on a small number of investors. Managing a large group while juggling other responsibilities would be impossible.”
A Ponzi sche requires constant new inflows to sustain itself. Limiting the number of investors makes such a structure inherently impossible.
The mont Gerard's smile faded, I dangled the bait once more.
"I understand it's hard to believe. After all, my ‘words' don't matter. Just judge based on the results."
I emphasized results alone—a declaration of confidence.
A trick that worked twice; why wouldn't it work a third ti? The more consistent the outcos, the more everyone would start believing in the magic.
At this point, Gerard's likely next move was clear:
He’d need to join my unofficial fund. He’d want to see what I say to investors, what materials I distribute. Only by diving in could he uncover the trick.
In magic terms, this would be akin to stepping on stage and inspecting all the props.
How much would he invest…
Joining my fund would an entrusting his money to .
This test of mine could conveniently double as an opportunity to increase my seed money.
And he’s Rachel’s brother, no less.
A casual trial investnt of a million dollars wouldn’t be too much to expect, right?
With those thoughts, I fixed my gaze on him. Finally, Gerard spoke.
"Interesting. Can I see the next investnt picks?"
That wasn’t the answer I wanted.
He only wanted to see the picks—without investing.
A bold request, or perhaps a cautious one.
"The investnt picks will only be disclosed to investors."
"I’ll pay generously for them."
"I'm sorry, but that goes against my policy."
Despite his offer to buy the information, I firmly drew the line.
If he wanted to uncover the trick, he’d have to invest directly.
Gerard’s suspicion beca obvious.
"If the value lies in the information itself, why not just sell it? I don’t see why you need to manage the assets too."
That’s a thought every investor has at so point.
Why not just hand over the picks and let handle the rest?
It’s a naive notion.
This seed like the perfect mont to address it head-on.
"I'm saying this for the benefit of investors. Simply hearing the picks and investing based on that is extrely risky. That kind of approach is bound to fail."
"Why?"
"Every investnt strategy has its own unique approach. The timing of entry and exit is determined by that strategy. If the target return is achieved or market conditions change, you need to exit swiftly. But it’s difficult for investors to judge this on their own."
"Then why not provide that information as well?"
"Even if I do, they won’t follow it."
"How can you be so sure?"
Because they never do.
Perhaps an example would make the point clearer.
"Let’s say I advise you to sell a stock imdiately. The price is still rising, but I recomnd exiting now. Could you sell without hesitation?"
"And if I can?"
"Good for you. But what if the stock price keeps climbing after you sell? Can you promise you won’t regret following my advice?"
"……"
Gerard didn’t answer right away.
Not even an empty assurance that he wouldn’t regret it.
"If you regret it even a little, it ans you didn’t trust the information. So might even think I misjudged the timing and refuse to sell in the first place. Others might sell and then buy back in, deviating from the original strategy."
"Doesn’t that just an the strategy was flawed?"
It wasn’t Gerard who interjected this ti—it was Jim from the tech departnt.
I barely knew the guy, yet he suddenly seed determined to take down.
"If the timing was off, isn’t that your fault?"
"No, the exit timing I chose was not wrong."
"But you said the price rose after selling. Isn’t selling at the peak the golden rule of investing?"
I couldn’t help but sigh. Ignoring him would make seem defensive, as if I lacked confidence in my stance.
Fine. I’ll engage him properly.
"Who says you need to sell at the peak?"
"Isn’t that common sense? Buy low, sell high—that’s how you make a profit."
"Does that an selling at the peak and buying at the bottom are the sa thing?"
"It’s this kind of nonsense that makes you refuse to share the picks alone. Even with solid information, people twist it and jump to conclusions."
Buy low, sell high.
Buy at the bottom, sell at the peak.
These are not the sa thing.
Yet novice investors conflate the two, scouring for the ‘bottom' and ‘peak' as if their lives depend on it.
But here’s the thing:
"No professional investor aims for bottom buying and peak selling."
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