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The release schedule was in complete disarray.
According to a source from New Line Cinema's distribution departnt, the disruption wasn't limited to the holiday season. Studios were also reshuffling their strategies for the fall releases in September and October.
They were experinting—testing market reactions to the fall and holiday periods, gauging audience responses to different genres.
For instance, The Haunted Mansion landed in the Thanksgiving window, Kill Bill avoided the Halloween weekend, and the entire Halloween weekend strangely saw no major releases.
Unusual scheduling choices like these were everywhere. Ultimately, the goal was clear: major studios were trying to shake up the norms, break fixed patterns, and rewrite the rules. In this free-for-all, they hoped to erge as the leader of the pack.
New Line Cinema, while not at the pinnacle of Hollywood's hierarchy, still played a critical role as a Warner Bros. subsidiary.
From New Line's perspective, all eyes were on the blockbuster players with $100-million-dollar budgets. But this holiday season, the real danger lay in the smaller contenders:
Movies like Gothika starring newly crowned Oscar winner Halle Berry, Bad Santa starring Billy Bob Thornton targeting the cri-cody niche, and Honey, led by TV-star-turned-actress Jessica Alba.
Then there was Tiline, directed by Richard Donner of Lethal Weapon fa and starring Paul Walker, fresh off the Fast & Furious franchise.
Other mid-to-low-budget films included Elf and The Butterfly Effect.
These smaller productions abandoned traditional schedules, haphazardly slotting into windows between Halloween and Thanksgiving, creating complete chaos in the marketplace.
In response, New Line Cinema devised a strategy to carve out a niche amidst the confusion:
Elf went head-to-head with The Matrix Revolutions, while The Butterfly Effect directly competed with Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. The idea was to use counter-programming. By riding the wave of the big-budget marketing juggernauts, these smaller films could draw attention without needing massive promotional budgets themselves.
It was a calculated risk—far more cost-effective than burning through resources to compete with mid-budget films and still risking failure.
After all, New Line's marketing budget couldn't compare to the top-tier studios.
For example, 20th Century Fox spent a staggering $20 million promoting Master and Commander. With stellar internal test screenings and the recent success of Pirates of the Caribbean reigniting public interest in naval battles, Fox was brimming with confidence.
Other projects had equally aggressive campaigns.
Thus, The Butterfly Effect faced stiff competition no matter where it landed. New Line's approach was simple: don't avoid the fight—charge straight into the battlefield.
A direct confrontation?
No. Borrowing arrows with a straw boat.
New Line's detailed and candid communication reassured Edgar, but he was still unsure how to respond.
From Edgar's perspective, avoiding the holiday season might not be a bad idea. Perhaps the winter or even next spring?
However, upon reflection, switching to another tifra wouldn't necessarily guarantee better results. More importantly, New Line's decision to target the holiday season showed their ambition and confidence in the project.
Ultimately, Edgar deferred to the professionals.
For now, the holiday season was shaping up to be unpredictable, with unconventional strategies sparking lively audience engagent.
The surprises kept coming.
Kill Bill earned $22 million on its opening weekend and had grossed $67 million so far. While slightly under expectations, Quentin Tarantino's offbeat style made massive box office numbers unlikely.
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre earned $29 million in its opening weekend and had reached $77 million—a massive success given its modest $9.5 million budget. It cented Jessica Biel's rise to stardom and delivered a big win for New Line Cinema.
Scary Movie 3 brought in $49 million on its opening weekend and had already surpassed $100 million, continuing the franchise's impressive track record.
Montum built week after week, peaking in the second week of November.
The Matrix Revolutions opened midweek to capitalize on post-Halloween audiences. It grossed $48 million in its opening weekend and $83 million in its first five days.
The numbers were slightly below expectations.
Back in May, The Matrix Reloaded had debuted with $91 million in its opening weekend and $134 million in its first five days, becoming one of the sumr's biggest hits. Six months later, the final installnt failed to surpass its predecessor's performance.
The air was tinged with unease.
Still, considering the holiday season's volatile lineup, the dip in The Matrix Revolutions' box office wasn't entirely surprising.
Surprisingly, Elf exceeded all expectations, grossing $32 million on its opening weekend and shocking the industry.
How did this happen?
Following The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, New Line Cinema had scored another win.
Despite Elf receiving diocre reviews (a 66 average from critics), the holiday atmosphere drew family audiences to theaters, stealing viewers from The Matrix Revolutions.
Could New Line beco the biggest winner of the holiday season?
Amidst this backdrop, Anson returned to Los Angeles as The Butterfly Effect prepared for its premiere.
On one hand, local dia buzzed with excitent, curious to see if New Line and Anson could deliver another surprise.
On the other hand, general audiences and Anson's fans felt anxious. The overwhelming promotional presence of The Matrix Revolutions and Master and Commander left little room for The Butterfly Effect to shine.
Worse, both Master and Commander and The Butterfly Effect scheduled their premieres for the sa day—Wednesday, November 12—in Los Angeles.
A direct clash.
Who was to bla?
Outsiders accused 20th Century Fox of bullying. Insiders, however, remained neutral, unsure whether New Line deliberately provoked the conflict.
Regardless, the showdown was set.
Sa day, sa city, sa ti—how would the audience choose?
(End of Chapter)
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