If one wants to ddle in the Russo-Japanese War, then preparations must be made in advance. In every major war before, Ernst was able to profit as he had already laid out the relevant plans. Now, Ernst is facing three possibilities: first, the Russo-Japanese War is delayed; second, the Russo-Japanese War does not happen; third, it follows the sa path as in the previous life.
The possibility of an early outbreak is almost nonexistent, because due to Ernst, Japan's overall level is not as strong as in the previous life, and Tsarist Russia hasn't made much progress compared to before. Moreover, the Russian-Turkish War and the Western Regions War didn't go as smoothly as in the previous life, so even if the two countries were to go to war, it is unlikely to be earlier.
In the Russo-Japanese War, Japan is more proactive compared to Russia. So in the previous life when Japan was actively preparing for war, there was no unified opinion inside Russia. Faced with Japan's full assault, the hastily prepared Russian army eventually suffered a great defeat. Hence, the judgent on the timing of the war should be based on Japan.
Therefore, if East Africa wants to predict the outbreak ti of the Russo-Japanese War, it only needs to closely watch the movents of the Japanese governnt and military. Once Japan completes its military expansion, under financial pressure, Japan must go to war, and among the Far Eastern countries, Japan is bound not to act recklessly in the spheres of influence of the United Kingdom, France, and East Africa.
The interests of the UK, France, and the US in the Far East overlap to a certain extent. Take Shanghai as an example, where the UK and France have leases, while the US, although it does not have a lease, has strong economic power.
East Africa's sphere of influence seems like a good target, and although East Africa's relationship with Japan is generally indifferent, it cannot beco Japan's target unless Japan could withstand the pressure from Germany, Austria-Hungary, and East Africa, so the German country's brand is very useful, the Far Eastern three nations' business community can actually be viewed as a whole.
Russia's sphere of influence is in the Northeast, and although Russia borders the Far East Empire and has the Siberian Railway, the capacity of the Siberian Railway is a huge problem. For instance, when the Russo-Japanese War broke out in the previous life, the Siberian Railway segnt around Lake Baikal hadn't been completed.
Moreover, the geographical location of Tsarist Russia's sphere of influence is right at the first stop of Japan's national invasion policy. The sequence of Japan's invasion policy uses the peninsula as a springboard, and next are the regions currently illegally occupied by the Russians.
As for why the British want to intervene, it's related to the current sphere of influence of Tsarist Russia. As the UK has the largest interests in the Far East Empire, its sphere of influence is divided into two parts by the Huai River, and separated by East Africa's Huaihai Economic Zone.
This can be seen from the distribution of trading ports. East Africa values the Jiaozhou coastal trading port the most, while in the south is Shanghai, and northwards to Yingkou, all under British control, so Russia's forces continue to move south, firstly threatening the interests of countries like the UK.
In recent years, the Huaihai Economic Zone has developed well, but it is impossible to quickly compensate for the relatively weak coastal economic status in the eastern part of the Far Eastern Empire, due to the Yellow River breaches, various natural disasters, frequent wars, and East Africa's immigration policies, local population recovery to a thriving state is bound to be difficult.
The fundantal reason for economic recovery lies in the rapid developnt of cities within the Huaihai Economic Zone, while agriculture within the zone hasn't completely recovered.
Moreover, the main economic force driving regional economic developnt has shifted from being primarily East Africa, Germany, and Austria-Hungary, to Germany, East Africa, and Austria-Hungary. With East Africa vigorously developing its dostic economy, adjusting immigration policies, and reforming state-owned enterprises, East Africa's level of activity in the imperial Far East is no match for German capital.
Fortunately, East Africa has a relatively solid foundation locally, so it still remains the second leading force in the region, second only to the Far East Empire authorities.
Overall, even if other countries set their sights on the Huaihai Economic Zone, the most anxious country should be Germany, not just East Africa.
Hence, in the region, the two countries that now most dread and are easiest to exploit Russia's sphere of influence are the UK and Japan.
As for the second scenario, where the Russo-Japanese War might not happen, there is a significant possibility too, primarily depending on the attitude of the Japanese governnt. However, with the recent secret eting between the UK and the Japanese governnt, Ernst is quite confident; the Japanese governnt's ambitions are expanding, and as for the third situation, it is essentially the sa as before, so there isn't much to say about it.
Ernst: "Assuming the two countries go to war, our main target to exploit will be Russia. Strategically, Russia is at a disadvantage, plus the British interference, then Russia will definitely have to seek assistance from us in East Africa."
In the previous life, Russia was tricked by the British; its European navy's main force couldn't fully support the war due to British obstruction.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet, due to treaty reasons, could not even pass through the Dardanelles Strait, so finally, it had to draw forces from the strongest Baltic Fleet, detour around the African continent, and finally reach Asia, as both Gibraltar and the Suez Canal are under British control.
Detouring around the Cape of Good Hope not only increased sailing ti and difficulty but also due to British intervention, neutral powers in Africa in the previous life dared not assist Tsarist Russia in resupplying.
This left Tsarist Russian soldiers sleeping in places full of coal dust, without carrying a large quantity of coal and supplies, nor getting effective rest, being able to reach the Far East sea area was quite achievent.
But the current tiline is different; East Africa occupies a small portion of the land in Africa and also has stable colonies in the South Sea Region, completely able to provide relevant services to the Russian fleet.
Of course, whether East Africa cooperates with Russia depends on what enticing offers the British and Tsarist Russia can present to East Africa.
In terms of interests, providing services for Russia is not an issue. In Ernst's view, if war breaks out, then Russia is bound to lose, even if East Africa provides services to its navy, it will not change this outco.
"Secondly is Tsarist Russia's funding issues, in this regard, we can give Russia so assistance, but there must be collateral or short-term loans, especially regarding oil and other mineral resources."
During the Russo-Japanese War, Russia faced a huge funding gap. Although Russia was a Great Power, the expenditures for the Russo-Japanese War were enormous, and the Russian governnt already owed a lot of debt. If a large-scale war were fought again, the treasury would be running on empty.
Moreover, lending money to Russia could profit us, but risks are large. In the previous life, Russia's largest creditor was France. After the Prussia War, France, as a loan-sharking country, kept lending money to Russia. France provided Russia a lot of loans, but the French didn't expect their massive investnts in Tsarist Russia to be defaulted by a new governnt after the Russian regi change.
So for long-term business, East Africa definitely cannot engage in it. Even if the Russian regi doesn't collapse, collecting debts from Russia is tricky as Russia has too many creditors, like France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria-Hungary, with so many competitors it's hard to carry out debt operations, so East Africa can only figure out from Russian resources.
Amid Russian resources, oil is sothing East Africa needs, and the Russian regi's collapse in the previous life was in 1917; the years in between sufficiently allow East Africa to gain a lot of oil resources from the Baku oil fields.
And the Russian governnt, being unable to repay its debts, would undoubtedly be happy to accept East Africa's proposal, at least before the Russian governnt collapses, East Africa could reap substantial benefits.
Ernst continued: "Now let's see the ga between the UK, Japan, and Russia. We must cast our net in advance to obtain rich rewards, especially keeping an eye on the movents of the Japanese and Russian governnts; we should be best positioned to bet at critical monts."
The betting cannot be only on a single Russia; East Africa wants to eat from both sides. The more fiercely Japan and Russia fight during the Russo-Japanese War, the better.
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