[Chapter 823: Daydreaming]
Sipping her coffee, Sabrina Rand carefully observed the young man across from her once again. Eric's gaze remained intensely fixed on the book in front of him. Even after half a month, her curiosity still lingered.
About two weeks ago, while searching for a sumr job, Sabrina received a call from her well-respected ntor at the academy. He ntioned that a bigshot was looking for a temporary tutor to explain so basics of finance. The job required only three hours each morning, and the pay was a tempting $200.
In the United States, tuition fees for elite universities were notoriously high, contributing to nearly half of college students dropping out along the way. Aside from a few affluent students, most Arican graduates carried so level of student debt. To ease financial burdens, many students took up part-ti jobs during their studies.
Sabrina was no exception. Until then, most of her part-ti gigs paid around $10 an hour. So when she heard about this position, earning $200 for just three hours of work, she eagerly prepared her resu to submit to her ntor. However, she didn't have high hopes. Although her grades were respectable, the competition for the job was fierce, with many exceptional candidates vying for it.
Two days later, she received the notification that she got the job.
She soon t with a vice president from Firefly Group, a man nad Allen Fisman. Initially, she thought he was the student she was ant to tutor, but he was just conducting her interview. After a casual thirty-minute chat, she was asked to sign a lengthy confidentiality agreent.
Sabrina had a sense that it was quite significant for a high-ranking executive from Firefly Group to get involved in such a trivial temporary job, but upon eting Eric, her jaw nearly dropped in surprise.
The job was located in Southampton, over a hundred kiloters away from Columbia University in Manhattan. To take on this temporary position, Sabrina arranged to stay at a classmate's ho in nearby Bridgeport. Each morning, she drove half an hour to et at a cafe in Southampton.
In those initial days, Sabrina spent most of the ti explaining fundantal concepts to Eric, particularly terms from George Soros's book, The Alchemy of Finance, such as reflexivity and bias among participants -- topics that were all very basic for finance students.
Though she never expressed it, occasionally Sabrina felt a faint sense of superiority. But as days passed, Eric's questions beca fewer and more complex, leaving her sowhat speechless at tis.
Recently, however, she began feeling more like a decorative vase. Besides the initial questions, Eric mostly read quietly, occasionally drifting off in thought.
At this point, she couldn't help but think that she might soon lose this well-paying job. Reflecting on her earlier feeling of superiority made her feel foolish. Here was a young man only two years older than her, possessing the imnse wealth of $46.5 billion -- though she recalled that was from the previous year; last year it had shot up to $67.7 billion. It was overwhelming.
After half a month together, Sabrina whimsically entertained thoughts of Cinderella-like fantasies and had started paying extra attention to her appearance. She even splurged on a brand-new set of costics. Yet to date, Eric had only discussed The Alchemy of Finance with her. She hadn't even visited his residence, although she assud he lived nearby. Their etings were confined to the cafe, and if he chose not to co, she would be inford to leave.
...
Noticing Eric's eyes wandering away from the book again, she mustered her courage and said, "E...Eric, I went to see Titanic last night with so friends."
As soon as she spoke, Sabrina noticed Eric's expression shift; he lifted his head as if realizing soone was sitting across from him. A faint smile curved on his lips, almost mischievous, as if he could see right through her.
Feeling her cheeks heat up, Sabrina regretted speaking up, but since she had, she continued with her carefully considered thought: "My friends and I believe the film is seriously underrated; it should be doing better at the box office."
Eric nodded slightly, saying, "Thank you for your praise, Sabrina. I'm glad you enjoyed the movie."
After that, Eric picked up the book again, his attention returning to the pages.
Sabrina's attempt at conversation had fizzled out, and she felt relieved yet lacked the courage to initiate further dialogue.
...
As noon approached, Sabrina packed her belongings. Eric also stood up, and together they left the cafe. She wanted to excuse herself to the nearby street to possibly grab a cab or hitch a ride ho when Eric stopped her.
"Hang on, let have soone drive you back," Eric said.
Sabrina paused, instinctively nodding. A warm feeling blood in her chest; earlier that morning she had casually ntioned her car had broken down, and here he was, paying attention. Until this mont, she had thought him to be reserved, and now she felt sowhat guilty for misjudging him.
Eric took out his phone and made a call while they waited by the curb outside the cafe.
After a mont of quiet reflection, Sabrina found her resolve and said, "Eric, you probably won't need anymore. Maybe I won't need to co in tomorrow?"
Eric looked at her and asked, "Your break should still be long, right? Do you have other plans?"
Sabrina thought for a mont before shaking her head honestly.
"Then how about you keep company while I read?" Eric smiled. "I really enjoy having soone around while I read, and I find your scent quite pleasant."
This made Sabrina blush slightly. "Eric, you must have plenty of girls willing to keep you company while you read."
"Yes," Eric nodded. "But they wouldn't explain reflexivity theory to ."
"Then," Sabrina carefully asked again, "Eric, may I ask why you're interested in Mr. Soros's book?"
Eric provided a vague answer: "So things are about to happen, so I'm preparing myself."
Seeing he didn't seem willing to elaborate further, Sabrina wisely chose not to push. It wasn't until many months later, when the global economic crisis swept through Southeast Asia, that she grasped the implications of his words at that ti.
When the car arrived, Eric instructed the driver to take Sabrina back to Bridgeport before heading back to the estate.
...
Unexpectedly, Chris and Emily had arrived without any notice. They had gone back to Maryland to spend Christmas with Jeffrey and returned sooner than expected.
Eric hugged them both and shared casual pleasantries. Chris noticed the book in Eric's hands and joked, "So you've hired a little girl just to keep you company while reading that book?"
Eric nodded, playing along, "Is this gossip already making its way to Maryland?"
"It's sothing Emily heard when she was on the phone with Joan," Chris explained.
But Emily chid in teasingly, "Who knows what he's really up to?"
Ignoring Emily's taunts, Eric inquired, "What brings you back so soon? Don't you want to stay longer?"
"Well, it's you who offloaded so much work onto Chris while taking it easy yourself," she retorted.
Eric looked Chris up and down, sensing sothing off, and responded, "If you just went ahead and married Chris now, I'd cut his workload in half imdiately."
Emily imdiately reacted, pulling Virginia along toward the villa, arguing, "We're off to prepare lunch; you two can chat."
Everyone shared a light chuckle.
After the won left, Chris returned to the topic of The Alchemy of Finance, saying, "Have you noticed Soros's recent movents?"
"The things he said about the Southeast Asian economy weren't exactly secret; how could I miss them?"
While the Southeast Asian financial crisis was commonly thought to have erupted in 1997, Soros had already been vocal about his bearish views on their economies since earlier that year. Just like a few years prior, when people confidently believed the British pound, seemingly stable for centuries, would never depreciate, the Southeast Asian nations, erging from over a decade of apparent prosperity, also believed their financial systems couldn't be undermined by re international speculators. They hadn't implented effective asures to protect themselves.
At that mont, so of the eager international currency traders might have already begun establishing short positions against the currencies of these countries. Eric recalled that in February of the following year, the international forex traders represented by Soros would start their tentative attacks on the Thai baht.
Chris couldn't help but think back to the incident in the '90s, asking, "What's your take this ti?"
Eric shrugged, "Southeast Asian countries are definitely facing tough tis. They won't hold up."
Chris's expression shifted as he questioned, "And what about us?"
"I've been contemplating that myself," Eric replied. "We certainly won't be able to replicate the miraculous profits we got from the futures market during the Kuwait War. That was a sudden, unprecedented black swan event. Almost no one expected Saddam would invade Kuwait, but he did. This ti is different; once Soros leads an attack on the Southeast Asian currency market, it will likely turn into a prolonged tug-of-war lasting at least six months, if not a year. The scale of international speculative funds to be involved will far exceed a trillion dollars. We won't have any advantages in deciding when to enter the market, and the risks we face won't be lower than those of others."
"So what do you plan to do?" Chris continued to press.
"Just ss around a bit, maybe throw a few billion in and play at small stakes, while we can't go too big, we can't just sit idle, either; that's not my style," Eric said, discussing the potential Southeast Asian economic crisis that had been on his mind.
He had considered making a massive play like five years before, but soon realized it simply wasn't feasible.
It was straightforward; with Firefly Group's current foundation, Eric could easily raise $2 billion in a short ti. If necessary, Firefly Group could also secure over a billion dollars in short-term loans from major Arican banks.
Ideally, with $2 billion, establishing a short position in the Southeast Asian currencies at a five-tis leverage would create an overall short scale of $10 billion.
Plenty of Southeast Asian currencies had depreciated by around 50% post-crisis according to his mory, which ant that Eric could potentially generate around $5 billion in profits from that $10 billion short position.
$5 billion was a substantial profit, especially since the top Arican corporate giants earned roughly that number in a year.
However, the reality was that, based on his mories, the "Asian tigers" faced the worst during the financial crisis, and the total foreign exchange reserves of those few countries added up to just a little over $100 billion. Currency speculation is quite different from international futures; the buyers of the currencies under attack are mainly the central banks of those nations, relying on their foreign exchange reserves for capital.
Putting aside the eventual impacts on national stock markets, bonds, and the real economy, when considering currency speculation itself, with only a bit more than $100 billion of "plump at" available amidst all the wolves, Eric knew it was impossible to establish a $10 billion short position.
How could one expect to swallow a tenth of it with $2 billion in capital when there were international speculators with over $100 billion not sitting idly by?
In his alternate tiline, during the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Soros had bet his entire fortune and only made sothing like $2 billion.
Thus, while so small-ti investors might take bold risks in the forthcoming financial crisis and possibly earn several tis their investnt, when the scale of speculative funds reached a certain level, the profit margins would drastically decrease, and achieving a profit of around 20 to 30% would already be considered good.
*****
spatreon/Sayonara816.
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