Erbil, Kurdistan Autonomous Region Governnt Building.
The ergency eting was convened at four in the morning, but it wasn't until five that everyone had arrived.
So mbers flew in from Sulaimaniyah Province, while others rushed from Duhok.
Seated around the long eting table were five senior mbers of the Autonomous Committee, with the screen on the wall displaying live footage from Kirkuk.
The flag of the Abu You Brigade fluttered above the oil wells that once belonged to the Kurd people, while black smoke rose from the remains of several burning vehicles.
Minister of Internal Affairs Kawo Aziz was the first to break the silence, slamming his fist on the wooden table, causing the teacup to rattle.
"This is betrayal! Blatant betrayal! That bastard Abu You has forgotten the Kurd blood flowing in his veins! His tribe hails from Haraabja, and his grandfather died in the Anfal massacre! Now he turns his guns on his own compatriots!"
"Of what use is it to say this now?"
Minister of Finance Shiwa Mahamud remained relatively calm, but the bulging veins on his temples betrayed his inner rage. "The key is our response. Should we imdiately dispatch troops to recapture the oil field, or... negotiate?"
Military Commander Salah al-Din Barzani brought up an electronic map, the red dot of his laser pointer circling the Kirkuk region.
"We have fewer than eight hundred n around Kirkuk, and they're scattered across twelve checkpoints and outposts. The Abu You Brigade has at least fifteen hundred n, and they have heavy weapons. According to front-line reports, they have deployed at least six BMP-1 vehicles, four mortars, and possibly anti-tank missiles."
He switched to the troop distribution map.
"It would take two days to bring in troops from the rear. It takes even longer to bring in troops from Marvol, at least three days. Furthermore, a large-scale mobilization would expose the weakness of other defense lines."
"What about the Aricans?"
Director of Foreign Affairs Diyar Talabani inquired, "Have they not always been coordinating all parties' relations? They should be able to exert pressure."
"I've contacted Major General Duke's office."
Talabani wearily rubbed his face, "His senior advisor answered. He expressed 'serious concern' but emphasized that it is 'an internal matter of Illiguo,' and the United States would not intervene militarily. He only suggested that both sides exercise restraint and resolve the issue through dialogue."
The conference room fell into silence.
Everyone understood what this implied.
The Aricans have chosen neutrality, or rather, the stance that best suits their interests.
The Kurds are a significant ally of the United States in Illiguo, but Abu You and his backer, Song Heping, are also among the most crucial allies of the United States at present.
After the failure of Operation "Balance Beam," the US Army reassessed their relationships with all parties, and evidently, they are unwilling to get deeply involved in local conflicts again.
"Why has Abu You suddenly beco so audacious?"
The chairman of the committee and the eldest mber, Masoud Barzani, posed a question, "He's already wealthy enough from controlling the southern oil fields, why risk attacking us? Soone must be instigating this."
"Samir!" Minister of Internal Affairs Aziz gritted his teeth, "Or more precisely, the Lord Dong behind Samir. In yesterday's parliantary address, Samir demanded that his troops be incorporated into the Defense Army, which we opposed. Then this happens the very next night... The timing is too coincidental. This is a threat, a blatant threat!"
"Is there any evidence?" asked Finance Minister Mahamud.
"Do we need evidence?" Aziz retorted, "Just look at who benefits the most? If Samir's proposal passes, he'll beco an official officer of the Defense Army, gaining supplies and legitimacy. Do you believe that if we compromise and the proposal passes in parliant, Abu You might retreat, at least we can negotiate."
Mahamud pondered, "Are you saying this is a chain of stratagems? If we support Samir, Abu You will stop the assault; if we continue to oppose, we lose the Kirkuk oil field?"
"And then tell the whole world that Kurdistan can be intimidated?"
Military Commander Barzani stood up, stomping his boots heavily on the floor.
"No! If we yield this ti, they will demand more next ti! Back then, we managed to control Kirkuk because we fought! Autonomy wasn't negotiated; it was fought for!"
"But the situation now is different!"
Mahamud raised his voice, "Back then, the Illiguo army collapsed, and we seized the opportunity to fill the vacuum. Now, the situation is entirely different; during Operation 'Balance Beam,' we lost too many troops, and with the recent drop in oil prices and last year's deficit reaching 1.2 billion US Dollars, can we afford a full-scale conflict?"
"And there's the geopolitical dilemma!"
The hitherto silent Minister of Energy interjected suddenly, "If Samir truly controls the northwest and becos a regular army, Kurdistan will be completely strategically surrounded. At that ti, we will be an isolated island, and any political demands will lose their bargaining chips. This is why we have resolutely opposed Samir's proposal in parliant!"
Masoud Barzani slowly nodded, "That is the core issue. Samir's rise is not just a military problem, but a geopolitical problem. Once he becos a regular army and consolidates the northwest, Kurdistan will be at the rcy of others."
"So we must strike back!" insisted Military Commander Barzani, "Not just for the oil fields, but for breathing space!"
"But what if the counterattack fails?" Mahamud countered, "If we suffer heavy casualties in Kirkuk and fail to reclaim the oil fields? Then we lose more resources and deterrence. Abu You will only grow stronger, and Samir's proposal will easily pass in parliant, with Baghdad possibly taking the opportunity to revoke our autonomy. At that point, wouldn't we be left with nothing?"
The eting room descended into a heated argunt.
The war faction believes that it is necessary to imdiately demonstrate military strength; otherwise, more territory and negotiation chips will be lost in succession. The peace faction advocates for caution, first negotiating to ascertain the other party's bottom line. There is also a middle faction that suggests advancing on two fronts, preparing for military action while negotiating with Baghdad and Abu You simultaneously.
Masoud Barzani listened silently, his face dark as the ash at the bottom of a pot.
This seventy-year-old man has experienced Saddam's repression, the 1991 uprising, the 2003 war, and the 2014 crisis. He understands how delicate the situation is for the Kurds.
Finally, he raised his hand, and the eting room instantly fell silent.
"Salahuddin," he asked the military commander, "if we counterattack, how soon can we muster enough forces? I need to hear the real situation."
"Pull two battalions from Marwal and one from Sulaimaniyah Province, along with the existing troops... we can launch a regintal-scale counterattack in the shortest ti of forty-eight hours,"
Barzani replied but added, "However, the Abu You Brigade has already established defenses, and according to reconnaissance reports, they are equipped with a large number of night vision devices and anti-tank missiles, which were not previously available. A strong attack would cause significant casualties."
"Casualty forecast?"
"To recapture the oil field area, at least more than one thousand casualties. If the Abu You Brigade resists stubbornly... it might double."
Masoud closed his eyes.
"Prepare for military action. Salahuddin, you have full command."
His voice carried a heavy tone.
"At the sa ti, Diyar, contact Baghdad imdiately and request an ergency eting. Tell them that if Samir's proposal passes in parliant, we can reconsider our position. But don't make it appear as if we're weak. This is negotiation, not surrender."
"What about Abu You?" Mahmoud asked.
Masoud pondered for a mont: "For the ti being, don't contact him directly. But let it be known: if he can halt the attack, we can negotiate with him and even with the boss behind him. After all... he used to be one of us."
This statent sparked controversy.
Minister of Internal Affairs Aziz imdiately objected: "Chairman, this is tantamount to acknowledging the status of a traitor! It sets a terrible precedent!"
"Be realistic, Kawo."
Masoud said, "Abu You has already controlled the entire Kirkuk Oil Field, and he has the resources we need. And if our analysis isn't mistaken, he is in cahoots with Samir and that Song Heping. You can fight Abu You and have a chance of winning, but what if Song Heping intervenes?! Can you win? Politics is not about acting on impulse."
He stood up, signaling the end of the eting.
"Salahuddin, you go prepare for military action. Diyar, you arrange negotiations. Everyone else... think about the future of the Kurd Autonomous Region. We are at a crossroads, and every decision might affect the fate of the coming decades."
Orders were issued when the sky was already bright.
The streets of Elbil began to awaken, hawkers pushing breakfast carts appeared, and office workers hurried by.
Few people knew that a hundred and fifty kiloters away, a conflict that could change the future of Kurdistan was brewing; and few knew that in Baghdad, another decisive negotiation was about to begin.
What the committee mbers did not know was that the Abu You Brigade had not only laid dense minefields and defenses but had also received specific instructions from Song Heping.
If the Kurds attack strongly, then retaliate resolutely; if they negotiate, then present conditions—
Abu You returns to the Autonomous Committee and has a say in energy and military affairs.
No one noticed that in a hotel room in Baghdad Green Zone, Song Heping had just received two encrypted ssages.
The first was from Abu You: "Oil field controlled. Casualties: 17 dead, 43 injured. Kurds are gathering forces but also signaling negotiations."
The second was from Yusuf: "Urgent ssage: Kurds request a party coordination eting at three o'clock this afternoon to discuss 'current security situation and parliantary proposal.' They have softened but require you to personally attend."
Song Heping deleted the ssages, gazing at the rising sun outside the window.
The Tigris River shimred in golden light in the morning glow, and egrets took flight from the reeds on the riverbank.
He recalled the saying from military strategy: The highest level of war is to defeat the opponent's strategy, next is to break their alliances, next is to fight their troops, and the worst is to attack their cities.
This afternoon, he would personally walk onto Baghdad's political stage.
And three hundred kiloters away, Kurdish and Abu You's armies were in a standoff.
Two negotiation tables, one battlefield, interconnected, each as leverage.
True players are never on the battlefield but in quiet rooms.
He sent a brief ssage to Samir: "Prepare for this afternoon's eting. Wear your military uniform and bring your dals. Today, we will show everyone who is the true master of the northwest."
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