On stage, the speech flowed like a river; in the audience, people stared, completely dumbfounded.
The listeners included bank employees, business owners, macroeconomists, and housewives who knew nothing about finance.
Logically, it would be difficult for a single idea to resonate with all of them.
If explained too deeply, the elites would understand, but the novices would be utterly confused. If explained too simply, the novices would understand, but the elites would be dismissive.
Moreover, the bank’s major client seminars focused solely on wealth, never considering the clients’ individual aptitude. This led to a huge disparity in the attendees’ levels, ranging from those with only a primary school education to others with doctoral degrees from prestigious universities.
So, most of the ti, these training sessions were often futile. Attendees would listen to experts blabbering on stage, then eat and drink, and finally go ho in a daze with a gift. Year after year, bank after bank, the process was always the sa.
But today was truly bizarre.
Teacher Han didn’t differentiate his teaching based on individual needs; instead, he kept it simple and direct. He used very few technical terms and never missed an opportunity to show off.
But surprisingly, the effect was terrific...
Han Lie lazily glanced back at the PPT, thinking of skipping the first point, but the students wouldn’t let him.
"Let’s not dwell on the broad economic cycle; you can look up the macroeconomic data yourselves.
If we’re just talking about the last two years, the World Bank’s developnt report on Southeast Asia and the periodic outlook reports from UBS and Deutsche Bank are quite interesting.
The material from those three big Arican rating agencies can be reviewed, but trust them as little as possible...
You still want to ask?
Alright, I’ll use an analogy for you—
In the city, there were five major gangs, clashing and fighting for territory daily.
Boss One had the most enforcers; he collected protection fees and dished out usurious loans.
Boss Two painstakingly built his gang, starting from undesirable jobs like cart-pulling, dung-carrying, blacksmithing, and selling boxed lunches, gradually monopolizing all the lower and middle-class trades in the city.
Boss Three ca from a family of weapon smiths, but his descendants were worthless, leaving them now with only their broke arrogance.
Boss Four and Boss Five followed Boss One, neither particularly successful nor entirely submissive, always scheming petty tricks.
The rest were all small fry, living hard lives. One wrong step, and they’d get a harsh beating from Boss One.
How does the economic cycle erge?
No matter which gang you belonged to, everyone needed to eat, wear clothes, and buy various small necessities. So, everyone’s money inevitably flowed into Boss Two’s pockets. Every year, when accounts were settled, expenditures always exceeded earnings.
Once any family couldn’t hold on any longer, they’d resort to desperate asures.
The sches of others didn’t do much damage. However, Boss One’s family was different. Not only did they always buy things on credit, but when they lost money and got desperate, they resorted to violent debt collection. Their terms were predatory—like ’nine out for thirteen back’—forcing everyone into misery.
To repay their debts, people had to scrimp and save. When saving beca extrely difficult even after tightening their belts, the economic crisis would hit.
As the crisis unfolded, so wealthy rchants had no choice but to sell their houses and shops cheaply. At this ti, if you had cash on hand, you could find great bargains everywhere.
Once Boss One’s debts were mostly repaid, life would go on, and the city would slowly return to prosperity.
Boss One would continue lending, Boss Two would keep raking in money from all directions, and the small fry who had perished would naturally be replaced by new gangs.
This is the grand economic cycle.
It will continue indefinitely, until everyone, whether they deserved to or not, has died off, or until soone finally flips the table in a rage."
The mont Han Lie finished speaking, laughter and applause suddenly erupted from the audience.
Even an indignant middle-aged man suddenly shouted, "Well said! Let them all die!"
"HAHAHA!"
In the current year of 2013, Han Lie’s interpretation of the economic cycle was incredibly fresh.
The details weren’t entirely clear, but overall, it was very easy to establish a frawork, especially suitable for laypeople to grasp.
Those truly knowledgeable in economics might sneer at it, but most people there didn’t understand.
Being able to provide a rough understanding to an audience with absolutely no background was definitely a skill.
Many young wives, whose interests lay far from economics, still watched Han Lie with eyes shining with fascination, listening eagerly.
"Teacher Han, how should we understand the concept of ’writing IOUs’?"
Han Lie suddenly heard a familiar voice. Looking in its direction, he saw Tang Xintian, who at so point had quietly taken a seat in a corner of the front row, now raising her hand to ask a question.
You have a nice smile, don’t you? Han Lie grumbled inwardly, making a ntal note about her, then openly explained.
"The trade surplus is huge. The country holds a pile of foreign exchange reserves it can’t spend, so it has to convert them into U.S. Treasuries. It’s equivalent to us selling a lot of goods, only to have the other party owe us money. Isn’t that basically ’writing IOUs’?"
That single sentence changed the look in Tang Xintian’s eyes.
Wow, that guy really understands economics! That’s ridiculous, how does he know everything?
At first, Tang Xintian thought Han Lie had copied so jokes or anecdotes from sowhere, which was why she spoke up to test him, only to hit a steel plate.
Although Han Lie’s answer was simple, it cut right to the core.
His casual and effortless delivery was precisely what proved how solid his foundation was.
Tang Xintian wanted to ask more, but another client interrupted her.
"Teacher Han, who do you think is likely to flip the table?"
Han Lie looked up. The question ca from a middle-aged man sitting in the center of the second row, dressed discreetly in a plain blue suit and a gray shirt. The outfit looked unassuming, but the fabric was of high quality.
Han Lie smiled lightly and replied succinctly, "Boss One will definitely go after Boss Two. Boss Three will likely target Boss One’s underlings. Boss Four is eager to cut ties with his poor relations. It’s a complete ss."
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