Han Lie’s extraction of the new round of bull market characteristics was completely different from past analytical logic, yet so thought-provoking.
Is having a lot of money a characteristic?
Normally, it is not, because a surplus of funds is a necessary condition for a bull market, serving as the foundational base for all bull markets to be established.
How could a bull market possibly arise purely on market inventory without the concentrated influx of external funds?
However, after Han Lie added those modifiers, the discerning minds pondered further and finally realized the difference.
Money and money are not the sa, more and more also have differences, and the current environnt...
Hiss~~~
The conference room fell silent for a mont, suddenly erupting into a faint humming sound.
The professionals inhaled sharply, the more they thought, the more shocked they beca, the more they pondered, the more they were astounded.
Xu Xiang, who had been quietly low-key, finally couldn’t resist, raised his hand for a microphone, and asked with a serious expression and a furrowed brow: "President Han, so you determine this round of the bull market is a typical fund-driven market bull?"
Han Lie was a little surprising.
Oh, you can’t sit still?
Interesting...
Han Lie was quite sure that historically, the chief helmsman had a different view of this bull market round.
At about 4,000 points, Xu clearly stated at a party: The current fundantals do not support the stock market continuation upward; it is now in the irrational frenzy phase.
"I don’t understand."
"Sustainability is questionable."
"With it going on like this, how will it end?"
Not only did he say this, but Zexi indeed stayed out of positions until it reached 5100 points.
When all the private equity net values were soaring, he missed the opportunity.
This was one of the rare instances where Xu Xiang fell significantly behind his peers due to being "too timid."
Until the stock market crash occurred, on July 9th, he entered the market with over 10 billion in funds, cashing out in about half a month, earning nearly 80% profit.
That was his crowning battle, and it was his last performance in this arena.
Objectively speaking, Lao Xu’s market sensitivity was probably one in a million, yet even a big bull like him was bewildered and missed out during the crazed bull market...
So, rewinding a full year, back to March 22, 2014, when the bull market had not yet shown any signs, and Han Lie had already predicted the biggest feature of the whole trend in advance...
Who wouldn’t be shocked?!
The chief helmsman’s question not only failed to stop the discussions in the conference room but instead made all the noises more chaotic.
"Does Xu Xiang disagree?"
"Honestly, I think it’s too outrageous..."
"But I think President Han’s logic is flawless, and the facts support it!"
"The logic indeed holds, but it’s only March now! Who can predict how exactly the environnt will change next year?!"
"Monetary policy absolutely has to shift! It can’t continue to tighten!"
"Yes, interest rate cuts and reserve ratio cuts are highly probable events, but what if the asures aren’t as strong as expected?!"
"Oh, co on! If there’s another money shortage this year, the real sector will have massive casualties!"
"Do you understand what active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy an?"
"Then what about real estate loan restrictions? It was emphasized at the beginning of the year to cool down purchases!"
"The question is, if the real estate market continues to decline, how long can local governnts hold out?"
"Probably not just the local level that can’t withstand it?"
"What about the transmission delay? Don’t you consider that?!"
"Hey, consider Han’s initial summary of interest rate marketization! Combined with the high probability of Arica ending QE this year, we might really be heading for a shift..."
Professionals, from all angles, argued endlessly.
Those supporting Han Lie were almost evenly matched with those skeptical, neither yielding to the other.
Don’t be fooled by Han Lie rely ntioning "a lot of money," it might seem quite offhanded, but it actually contains a whole set of comprehensive judgnts based on economic principles, targeting the future macroeconomic trajectory.
The level of knowledge contained is hard for non-professionals to imagine.
So it directly amplified the sense of participation, everyone had their perspectives, they couldn’t hold back.
Amidst the clamor, Han Lie softly spoke up, directly responding to Xu Xiang.
"Yes, that’s what I’m thinking, the foundational logic is threefold."
As soon as he spoke, the noisy conference room instantly quieted down, with over 600 custors listening attentively.
"First, the authorities have made it clear that the loan and purchase restriction policy will not change direction in the short term, and after the shift occurs, so ti is needed to restore market confidence. Therefore, we predict that the real estate market’s decline is unlikely to be alleviated effectively before the end of the year.
As a result, the real estate reservoir function is temporarily locked, leaving a large amount of funds with nowhere to go.
Second, due to the influence of international and dostic environnts, the central bank’s monetary policy will witness a clear curve from cautious to stable, to stable and flexible.
Moreover, with the exploration of interest rate marketization reforms, monetary easing has already irreversibly advanced.
This part is constrained by ti, and I can’t elaborate further; everyone can grasp the trend when they return and review Chu Hongfang’s policy interpretations.
Third, the explosive growth of Internet finance combined with traditional private lending is aggregating massive private small capital into a sea.
Whether it is the erging P2P industry, the nascent online consur finance, or comrcial banks under heavy lending restrictions, many funds that previously lacked market-entry impulse are becoming eager to move.
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