Edo Bay, JapanEarly November 1836
The Rivoli returned without haste.
The sea ahead was calm, the sky clear, and the fleet moved in the sa steady formation it had maintained since leaving Manila. There was no change in speed, no attempt to rush the approach. The ssage had already been delivered weeks before. Now, this was no longer about announcing presence. It was about receiving an answer.
Guizot stood on the forward deck, his posture relaxed but attentive. His aide remained beside him, watching the coastline slowly co into view.
"They will be ready this ti," the aide said.
Guizot nodded.
"Yes. They have had ti to prepare."
"And to decide."
Guizot did not respond imdiately.
"They may not have decided fully," he said after a mont. "But they will have chosen how to respond."
The coastline grew clearer as the hours passed. This ti, the reaction in the bay was different. The smaller Japanese vessels did not scatter imdiately as they had before. They kept their distance, but they held their positions. So turned away, but not all. The alarm was still there, but it was controlled.
"They’re watching," the aide said.
"They were always watching," Guizot replied. "Now they know what to look for."
The captain approached.
"We are entering Edo Bay," he said. "Orders?"
Guizot looked ahead.
"We hold position," he said. "No warning shot."
The captain inclined his head.
"Yes, sir."
On the shoreline, preparations had already been made.
Sakai Tadayuki stood at the sa observation point he had occupied during the first arrival. This ti, he was not alone. Several officials stood with him, along with a small group of samurai who had been assigned to receive the foreign delegation if it ca.
He raised the spyglass and focused on the approaching ship.
It was the sa.
Just as large.
Just as unnatural.
But now it was expected.
"They returned," one of the officials said.
Sakai lowered the glass.
"Yes."
"And they ca back exactly as they left."
"They did not need to change," Sakai replied.
Another official spoke, his tone sharper.
"They think we will accept their terms."
Sakai glanced at him.
"They think we will answer."
"That is not the sa."
Sakai did not argue that.
He looked back toward the bay.
"They are not here to guess," he said. "They are here to hear it from us."
Inside Edo Castle, the atmosphere was controlled but heavier than before.
The ssage had been read.
The implications had been discussed.
Now, the decision had to be delivered.
Tokugawa Ienari sat at the center of the chamber, surrounded by his senior advisors. The Dutch translator stood to one side, waiting, his role not yet finished.
An advisor nad Matsudaira Nobuaki spoke first.
"We should deny them," he said. "We have maintained our isolation for generations. There is no reason to abandon it now."
Another advisor, Hotta Masayoshi, shook his head slightly.
"And if denial leads to conflict?" he asked. "We have seen their ship. We have heard their weapons. This is not a minor power."
Matsudaira frowned.
"We have repelled foreigners before."
Hotta replied calmly.
"Not like this."
A third advisor, Abe Masahiro, spoke next.
"They have already demonstrated restraint," he said. "They fired a blank shot. They delivered a ssage. They withdrew. That suggests they are willing to negotiate."
Matsudaira turned toward him.
"Or it suggests they are confident they can return with force."
Abe did not deny that.
"That is also possible."
The room settled into silence for a mont.
Tokugawa Ienari listened.
Then he spoke.
"They are not asking as equals," he said.
The statent was quiet, but clear.
"No," Abe said. "They are not."
"Then what are they offering?" the shogun asked.
Hotta answered.
"A choice," he said. "One that appears cooperative, but is backed by power."
Matsudaira added,
"A choice that is not truly a choice."
The translator remained silent, though his eyes moved between the speakers, following every word.
Tokugawa Ienari leaned slightly forward.
"And what do you propose?" he asked.
Abe spoke first.
"We do not open the country fully," he said. "But we do not reject them outright either. We allow limited contact, controlled, restricted, and observed."
Matsudaira shook his head.
"That is a weakness."
"No," Abe replied. "It is control."
Hotta nodded.
"If we refuse completely, we risk provoking them. If we accept fully, we lose control. A limited opening allows us to manage both."
Matsudaira’s expression remained firm.
"And if they demand more?"
Abe answered without hesitation.
"Then we deal with that when it cos."
The room grew quiet again.
Tokugawa Ienari looked at each of them in turn.
"You are asking to change a policy that has held for generations," he said.
Abe lowered his head slightly.
"Yes."
"And you believe this is necessary."
"Yes."
Tokugawa Ienari leaned back.
"And if you are wrong?"
Hotta answered this ti.
"Then we face the consequences with preparation rather than surprise."
The words settled.
Back at Edo Bay, the French had lowered a boat once again.
This ti, the movent on shore was more organized.
Sakai stood at the landing point, flanked by samurai and officials. The Dutch translator had been brought forward, his presence now essential.
The boat approached slowly.
Guizot remained aboard the Rivoli, watching.
"They’re ready," his aide said.
"Yes," Guizot replied.
The French officer stepped onto the shallow edge of the shore, carrying no weapon, only the expectation of response.
Sakai stepped forward.
The translator moved beside him.
The French officer spoke first, in clear French.
"We return to receive the answer of your governnt."
The translator listened carefully, then spoke in Japanese.
"They have returned for our answer."
Sakai nodded once.
"Tell them we have received their ssage," he said.
The translator repeated it in French.
The officer listened, then nodded.
"And?" he asked.
The translator turned back to Sakai.
"They ask for the decision."
Sakai did not answer imdiately.
He looked toward the bay, where the Rivoli stood, unmoving.
Then he spoke.
"You will not receive the answer here," he said. "You will receive it from Edo."
The translator conveyed it.
The French officer listened, then gave a small nod.
"We will wait," he said.
The translator relayed it.
Sakai studied him for a mont.
Then he said,
"You will not approach further until you are summoned."
The translator repeated it.
The officer answered calmly.
"We understand."
The boat returned to the Rivoli.
Guizot remained where he was as the officer climbed back aboard.
"Well?" his aide asked.
"They will answer," Guizot said. "But not yet."
His aide nodded.
"They want control."
"Yes."
Guizot looked toward the shore.
"And they are trying to keep it."
He folded his hands behind his back.
"That ans they are taking this seriously."
The aide glanced at the coastline.
"And when the answer cos?"
Guizot allowed a faint breath.
"Then we move to the next step."
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